Capital Markets

Riding the Amplifier

Concentrated momentum in the markets’ new amplifier regime · White Paper · August 2026

The central claim: equity markets have shifted into a structurally new momentum regime. The trigger keeps changing – artificial intelligence, the Zeitenwende, the erosion of trust in the US order. The amplifier stays the same: passive capital that buys and sells mechanically; options markets in which 0DTE contracts account for 65% of S&P 500 volume; $1.53 trillion of margin debt; and a new, algorithmic retail layer with great effects on all investors.

Key findings

Distribution test, US: in quiet years, 1 to 4% of large caps double within twelve months. 2024: 7%. 2025: 8.7%. 2026: 13.5% through seven months – the first multi-year rising sequence without a preceding crash since at least 2005.
27 names above +200% after seven months – a record for the entire series.
Europe confirms the pattern at a lower base level, with defense rather than memory as the carrier.
The counter-thesis is in the paper: momentum crashes – 100 becomes 9, precisely during the recovery.
Limits disclosed: Chapter 16 states what the work does not show.

White Paper · German (PDF)Read the White Paper · English (PDF)

Figure from the paper

Figure 4 · The distribution test, US: share of US large caps with a rolling twelve-month return above +100% (left) and the number above +200% (right), per calendar year 2005–2026. Data source EODHD, own calculation and presentation.

About the Author

David A. Pieper is an entrepreneur and the founder of one of the largest family office communities, in which leading entrepreneurial families and their investment companies organize. His work focuses on the intersection of family offices, real estate and capital markets; he holds an MBA and an LL.M. in Private Wealth Management. The observations described in this paper stem from managing his own group’s portfolio and family office mandates, not a distribution context.

Contact: Substack · LinkedIn

This document is for discussion purposes only. It constitutes neither investment advice nor an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. All information given to the best of the author’s knowledge; data as of August 2026. © 2026 · All rights reserved. Quotation with attribution is expressly welcome.